THE US–IRAN WAR, 2026

Situation as of 16 October 2026. This is a developing war; check current reporting before relying on any figure. Main source: Council on Foreign Relations, Global Conflict Tracker (text updated 11 Sep 2026, news to 15 Oct 2026) and CFR analysis articles.

Jun 2025     IAEA finds Iran in breach (12 Jun); Israel strikes (13 Jun);
             US strikes Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan (21 Jun); ceasefire 23 Jun.
Dec 2025     Protests after the rial collapses; violent crackdown.
Jan–Feb 2026 Nuclear talks; largest US buildup in the region since 2003.
28 Feb 2026  US and Israeli strikes begin after Iran refuses to end enrichment.
             Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is killed; Mojtaba Khamenei succeeds him.
             Iran strikes US facilities in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE,
             and Israel; it mines and closes the Strait of Hormuz.
7 Apr 2026   Two-week ceasefire begins; sporadic strikes continue.
Jun 2026     Pakistan-mediated memorandum: reopen Hormuz, 60-day halt,
             lift US naval blockade.
8 Jul 2026   Truce collapses; strait closed again; US blockade revived.
Oct 2026     Blockade enforcement and ship sinkings in and near Hormuz.

Figures (with dates)
  Hormuz flow       ~21 million barrels/day, about 1/5 of world oil (EIA, H1 2025)
  Hormuz traffic    down ~70% after the war began (CFR)
  Brent crude       ~$70 pre-war; June futures above $126 in late April (AP)
  US deaths         13 service members (NPR, as of 14 Mar 2026)
  Iranian civilians 1,701 deaths (HRANA via Time, as of 21 Apr 2026)
  Displaced         up to 3.2 million (UNHCR)
  Note              "complete casualty figures do not exist" (CFR)